Post-earthquake fire risk assessment of historic urban areas: A scenario-based analysis applied to the Historic City Centre of Leiria, Portugal

Recent natural and anthropic disasters have aroused the interest of scientific governmental community in seeking more efficient effective risk mitigation strategies. Index-based approaches received particular attention field disaster because their extraordinary capacity to synthesise spatially contextualise vulnerability. Motivated by massive impacts earthquakes, seismic has gained popularity over last few decades. However, little been paid so far a potentially highly impacting phenomenon: post-earthquake fires. Historical records shown that fire ignitions triggered earthquakes present significant likelihood ending up massively destructive urban fires whose consequences are even dreadful than those earthquake itself. This paper aims contribute body knowledge presenting scenario-based analysis Historic City Centre Leiria. Firstly, two vulnerability index methodologies applied obtain damage scenarios. Then, matrix is used identify buildings prone suffer ignitions. Finally, spreading suppression conditions examined discussed through detailed where outputs, damages, accessibility area combined an integrated analysis. The results show for event intensity IEMS−98 = VIII, 33% total surveyed could moderate or high ignition.